From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

81444

20025 Mount Rose Hwy
Reno, 89511
Offered at $1,299,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

1025732

310 Allerman
San Francisco, CA
Offered at $2,649,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

International Dragon Boat Festival – September 14-15, 2013

Come join spectators and competitors for a weekend of world-class dragon boat racing, spectacular cultural performances, and fun-filled activities for the whole family at the largest competitive dragon boat festival in the United States. This year, the Kaiser Permanente San Francisco International Dragon Boat Festival has over 130 dragon boat teams and 3,500 dragon boat paddlers racing in the 300 and 500 meter courses. Dragon boat teams range from novice to competitive skill level. Novice teams represent local Bay Area corporations, public agencies and non-profit community. Recreational and competitive teams practice year-round and hail from all over the United States, Canada and the Netherlands. This year’s championship race is going to be one of the fiercest battle for victory to date!

In addition to the exciting dragon boat racing, the Festival features many fun cultural activities: an entertainment stage with live dance and music performances, the Dragon Land children’s activity pavillion and a variety of food, arts & crafts and other vendors.

September 14th and 15th, 2013
Festival hours are 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM PST
Racing is from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM PST
Treasure Island, San Francisco
No admission fee

For more information go to www.sfdragonboat.com/

Ghirardelli Chocolate Festival – September 14-15, 2013

Ghirardelli Chocolate Company is excited to invite you to the 18th annual, two-day chocolate celebration that has transformed into a true San Francisco staple. Over 30 vendors generously donate sample-sized portions of their products to help raise money for Project Open Hand, a fundraising organization that provides “meals with love” to people living with serious illnesses and to seniors in San Francisco and Alameda County.

With such a significantly historical part of our heritage beautifully located in the heart of San Francisco’s waterfront, it makes perfect sense to throw a chocolate festival where it all began. Festival goers have the chance to experience the latest chocolate trends all while surrounding themselves in the rich history of America’s longest operating chocolate company. The Ghirardelli Chocolate Festival started in 1996, and has been a hit every year since. Due to the overwhelming success, the festival has extend down to Beach Street and not only occupies the Plaza in the Square, but a full San Francisco block.

September 14th and 15th, 2013
Ghirardelli Square, San Francisco
Advance online tickets: $20 for 15 sample tickets
At the door: $25 for 15 sample tickets
General events are at no charge

For more information go to www.ghirardelli.com/chocolatefestival/

The Autumn Selling Season, Seasonality & Changing Market Dynamics

September 2013 San Francisco Real Estate Market Report

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Is the market flattening out after its huge appreciation surge since 2012 began, or will the autumn sales season bring another step of renewed price increases?

Right now, there are some mixed signals regarding what is occurring in the San Francisco market: spring’s big jump in values vs. the recent plateau in median sales prices; interest rates that have increased significantly, but are still extremely low by historical measures; growing signs of buyer burnout with frenzied market conditions vs. supply and demand statistics that still indicate a very strong sellers’ market; and an increasing number of expired listings, which suggests that sellers may now be pushing their asking prices too high for buyers to swallow.

Seasonality plays a significant role in median sales prices rising in spring and autumn, and declining in summer and winter – as discussed below, much of this pertains to ebbs and flows in the luxury home market and does not necessarily reflect changes in home values. With real estate statistics, the longer-term trend is what is meaningful, not short-term fluctuations up and down. Looking at the chart above, the median sales price jogs up and down for a variety of reasons, including seasonality, but stepping back, one sees the strong, ongoing appreciation since the market recovery began.

September is typically the month with the highest number of new listings hitting the market: how buyers respond will determine what the next stage of the market will look like.

2The Luxury Home Market, Seasonality & Median Sales Prices
The big surge in accepted offers for higher-price homes occurs in April/May and September/ October, when these sales make up about 14% of total home sales. The big slump in luxury home sales occurs in the summer months and in December/January, when their percentage of total sales declines to about 10%: more so that the general market, the luxury segment checks out during the summer and winter holidays. This significant decline in the ratio of high-price sales to total sales is one factor that reduces overall median home sales prices during the summer and winter holiday months.

3Inventory of Homes for Sale
This chart tracks the overall decline in inventory available on any given day since the market recovery began. However, despite the huge decline in listings for sale on any day, the number of MLS home sales in 2013 YTD is actually a tad higher than the same period of 2012, and 16% higher than in 2011. Because a much higher percentage of listings are selling, and selling much more quickly than before. If sellers start re-entering the market in larger numbers, the quantity of sales should jump sharply higher as well – and may stabilize home price appreciation.

4New Listings Coming on Market
September is typically the single month of the year when the largest number of new listings comes on market. This chart illustrates the ebb and flow of new inventory by season. We shall see if this September brings the big surge in new home listings that buyers are hoping for.

This link’s chart tracks Months Supply of Inventory: It continues to indicate a market defined by very high demand when compared to the supply of inventory available to buy:
Months Supply of Inventory

5Expired and Withdrawn Listings
The main reason for expired and withdrawn listings is that buyers ignored them as overpriced. The fact that the number of these listings has been climbing dramatically of late means that sellers are either pushing the envelope on prices or buyers are pushing back at the price points recently achieved during the height of the market frenzy – or both.

6August Snapshot
This chart indicates some of the mixed signals we’re seeing: on one hand, 87% of sales sold quickly without price reductions at an average sales price 8% over list price (i.e. an extremely hot market). On the other hand, the number of listings expiring or being withdrawn is climbing and so is the number of listings that has been on the market for 2 months or longer without accepting offers. Note the large difference between average days on market between homes that sell without price reductions (31 days) and homes that must be reduced before they sell (88 days): pricing, preparing and marketing properly is vital in any market.

7Mortgage Interest Rates
Rates have been more or less stable since their big percentage jump in June. The increase in loan rates from their low point in 2013 is large as a percentage increase, but still leaves current rates very low from a historical perspective. The consensus of pundits seems to be that rates will be going significantly higher when and as the Fed begins tapering their huge bond-purchase program, but predicting interest rate changes is a tough game.

America’s Cup Finals

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4/08/2012, San Francisco (USA,CA), 34th America’s Cup, America’s Cup World Series San Francisco 2012 August, Race Day 3
Photographer : Gilles Martin-Raget

September 7th through 21st, 2013, San Francisco

The 34th America’s Cup brings the competition for the oldest trophy in international sport back to the United States for the first time in 18 years. And it does so in style, with exciting new boats, a new format for the racing, and television and web coverage that takes the viewer into the racing as never before. There are two new classes of boats; both will be more powerful, more demanding of the crews and faster than anything seen at the America’s Cup to date.

Bringing the racing to the people is a new priority. Newly added near-shore race courses are sure to thrill those on site. Upon reaching its zenith in San Francisco, the host city of the 34th America’s Cup, the spectacular natural amphitheater of San Francisco Bay will be a glorious setting for this historic and much-anticipated race finale.

For more information go to www.americascup.com

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

_64789_orig

30 Santa Ana Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94127
Offered at $3,250,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Up Again in June

Note: Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

The June 2013 aggregate C-S Index (all price ranges) for the SF Metro Area is up approximately 2.7% from May, up 32% – 34% from its low point, but still approximately 20% below its peak in 2006. Please note that for a drop of 50% to be recouped, the increase must be 100%.

When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point. With the recovery that began in 2012 and has accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

The lowest price range (deeply affected by foreclosures and distressed sales) fell most dramatically – an approximate 60% decline from its peak. It is now recovering dramatically on a percentage basis – up 45% from its low point – but is still about 40% below its 2006 peak. It has much more loss to make up.

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The upper price range (the top third of unit sales) in the 5-county metro area fell much less than the 2 lower price tiers (low and middle) during the bubble pop. On a percentage basis, it’s increase from its low point – about 27% — is not as great as for the lowest price tier, but is now getting close again to its previous peak value. In the city of San Francisco itself, many neighborhoods have now reached or surpassed previous peak values reached in 2007-2008.

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This chart below illustrates the short-term monthly changes in the C-S high tier price index: the recovery in 2012 accelerating in 2013. May’s reading jumped 3.7% from April’s, and June’s was 2% above May’s, so the pace of acceleration seems to be slowing after a torrid spring.

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And then looking just at the city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area: many of its neighborhoods are now well past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices, and that median sales prices and C-S Index numbers do not correlate exactly. This chart implies that a plateau in home values has been reached in San Francisco: this could either be an indication of a stabilizing market or simply a seasonal plateau that sometimes occurs during the summer months for a variety of reasons, including that the higher-end home market has a greater tendency to withdraw from the market during the holidays. We shall have to wait and see what occurs when the autumn selling season begins after Labor Day.

At the previous peak of the market, the combined house-condo median sales price in San Francisco was $832,000.

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From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

1332245

1448 Pittman Terrace
Zephyr Cove, NV 89448
Offered at $4,975,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

South Beach-SoMa: Updated Charts

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