Scoping Out: Noe Valley

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We aren’t sure if winter will ever arrive, but while the forecast calls for mid- 60′s and partly cloudy skies, it’s perfect weather for strolling through one of your favorite San Francisco neighborhoods. Whether you’re jones-ing for a pick-me-up from Philz Coffee, looking for that perfect dress at Ambiance or just want to grab lunch and take it to a park, Noe Valley is just the place to enjoy our “not-so-winter” winter.

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Source : http://www.parascopesf.com/noe_valley

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1725 Jones Street, No.1


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What’s Happening in San Francisco in 2014? A LOT!

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It’s hard to believe it’s already 2014! There’s such an abundance of events throughout the year in our amazing city, where does one begin? Well, we have something to help get you started. So before you book up your weekends, check out our handy event calendar to give you some inspiration. (CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO EXPAND).

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Source : http://www.parascopesf.com/whats-happening-in-san-francisco-in-2014-a-lot/

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725 Fell Street, No.6

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412446_02

1156 Florida Street


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2014 – January Market Report

San Francisco Real Estate: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

The real estate market recovery started in earnest in 2012 and then went white hot in spring 2013, which resulted in a huge jump in home prices. In the last six months of the year, the market calmed somewhat and prices generally stabilized, but buyer demand remained very strong by historical standards. Economic conditions have continued to improve, household net worth has increased dramatically with rising stock and housing markets, rents remain very high, new construction is soaring and interest rates, after jumping in 2013, are still relatively low. Though it is impossible to predict the future, these factors typically form the foundation of a healthy, active housing market.

In the next few weeks, new listings will start coming on market, buyers will get back in home-search mode and the market will begin to wake up after the holiday hibernation. Then we’ll start to get an inkling of what the new year has in store.

If you missed our survey of what San Francisco homebuyers bought in 2013, you can find it here: 2013 Market Survey. It was reported on by SFGate, KGO Radio and other major media.

1968-2010_US-CA-SF_Median_Price

This first chart above gives a longer-term overview of city, state and national real estate price trends. Though varying by neighborhood, San Francisco has generally made a complete recovery from the market decline suffered in 2007-2011. Some city neighborhoods surged to new peak values in 2013.


This chart below tracks San Francisco median prices by quarter, illustrating how the rebound in values progressed in steps since the recovery began.

Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

And below, home value changes for Bay Area higher priced homes are charted over the past 2 years according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

Total Home Sales by Year (below).

The quantity of sales in the past two years has been severely constrained by an inadequacy of inventory to meet demand. This, of course, is also a major factor behind price increases.

SF_Total_Unit_Sales_Since_1994

San Francisco Luxury Home Market

A major component of the recent recovery has been the terrific resurgence in luxury home sales. There are 3 main factors involved: firstly, the affluent have benefited most from the big surge in financial markets, which makes them feel even more affluent; secondly, our local high-tech boom has minted a large number of newly wealthy homebuyers; and finally, the simple increase in prices moves a certain number of home sales into the price categories we typically define as luxury ($1.5m and over for condos, co-ops and TICs; $2m and above for houses).

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2013_LuxHome_Condos_by_District

2013_LuxHome_SFD_2000-4999_by-District

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Home Price Appreciation by Selected Neighborhoods

This chart measures increases in median home prices over the past two years for a number of SF neighborhoods. Median price changes are not exact correlations of value changes, but give an approximate range of appreciation, in this case, about 25% to 30%. Distressed home sales were not included in this analysis as they typically do NOT reflect fair market value; if they had been included, several of these neighborhoods would show much greater percentage price increases since 2011.

2011-2013_Median_Price-Appreciation_Lw

And this chart below looks at median sales price appreciation in a few higher priced home segments. Here, we also added the change in dollar per square foot values (though not reflected in the chart columns). Note that appreciation rates between median prices and dollar per square foot can vary in the same neighborhood, which emphasizes that these are general statistics best used for indicating trends and delineating the range of value changes.

2011-2013_Median_Price-Appreciation_hgh

2013: Peak & Plateau

This chart is a bit complicated, but illustrates the differences in the heat of the market between 2011 and 2013, and, specifically, the peak of the market frenzy in the second quarter of 2013. In the second quarter, almost every statistical measure reflected the hottest market in recent memory: fewest price reductions and expired listings, lowest days on market, highest percentage of sales over list price, lowest interest rates in history, and so on. In the two quarters after, the market slowed and plateaued, but remained quite strong – as one can see by comparing them with 2011.

Percentages-Without_Reductions_Expireds-Comp

Selected 2013 Neighborhood & District Snapshots

SOMA-SB-YB-MB_Sales-by-Price

South Beach-SoMa-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay

Above is a look at the biggest condo market segment in the city, where the vast majority of new condo construction has occurred and is continuing to occur. Condos of every price range are found here, including a very substantial ultra-luxury component with extremely high dollar per square foot values (and typically with utterly spectacular views).

Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights and Inner Mission markets

Potrero-Bernal-Mission-Price-Range

Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys District Snapshot

An overview of house, condo and TIC sales in this very hot central district of the city.

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Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina

The highest house prices in the Bay Area.

District_7_Sales-by-Price-Range

Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills

Some of the most expensive condos in San Francisco are located in this district.

Russ-Nob-Tel_Condos_by-Price-Range

Mortgage Interest Rates

2014 started with a 30-year conforming interest rate of 4.5%, which is about a full percentage point above the historic lows one year ago. This affects the cost of homeownership significantly (if one is getting a loan), but the rate is still quite low in the context of the past 30 years.

Average_30-Year_Mortgage-Rates

San Francisco Housing Units: Inventory By Property Type

After investigating with the Departments of Planning and DPW, their inventory and pipeline reports, U.S. census data, MLS data, Andy Sirkin, NAHB and a half dozen other resources, we came up with the following estimates about San Francisco housing inventory:

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Additional findings:

  • 124,000 housing units are owner occupied. About 4% to 4.5% of San Francisco houses and 6.5% to 7% of condo, co-ops and TIC units are sold annually.
  • 222,000 housing units are rented out and 25,000+units are vacant at any given time

* These are very approximate estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, the SF Depts. of Planning & Public Works, MLS and other sources deemed reliable.

Source : http://bit.ly/1cDO22d

Great Dickens Christmas Fair – December 22, 2013

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The Great Dickens Christmas Fair is a one-of-a-kind holiday adventure into Victorian London – an elaborate party with hundreds of costumed players performing and interacting with patrons in over 120,000 square feet of theatrically-lit music halls, pubs, dance floors and Christmas shops.

It’s a twilight evening in Charles Dickens’ London Town; a city of winding lanes filled with colorful characters from both literature and history. Enticing aromas of roasted chestnuts and hearty foods fill the air. Cries of street vendors hawking their wares ring out above the bustling crowd. Dozens of lamplit shops are filled to overflowing with Christmas gifts. The Dickens Christmas Fair is a treasured Bay Area tradition since 1970 and a splendid way to celebrate the holidays.

Four weekends including the Friday after Thanksgiving: November 29th through December 22nd, 2013 from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM PST
Cow Palace Exhibition Halls, 2600 Geneva Avenue, San Francisco
General Admission, $25. Student/Senior/Military, $21. Children 5-11, $12. Children Under 5, Free. Groups of 15 or more, $17. Pickwick Club (Fair season pass), $60.

For more information go to www.dickensfair.com/

What SF Homebuyers Bought in 2013: A Survey

Penthouses, Mansions, Short Sales & Fixer-Uppers

What Did San Francisco Homebuyers Buy in 2013?

Views, prices, architecture, neighborhoods, property types and sizes, parking, probate sales and appreciation rates: We data-mined all of San Francisco’s 2013 sales reported to MLS through the end of November and charted the results below.

 

Sales as described in and reported to San Francisco MLS by 11/25/13. All data herein is from sources deemed (at least somewhat) reliable — i.e. the information input by listing agents regarding their own listings — but may contain errors and is subject to revision. These charts do not include sales unreported to MLS, such as the sale of many so-called “pocket listings” and many of the new-development condo sales that occur.

September Case-Shiller Index Released

The Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of the city of San Francisco’s house sales are in the “high price tier.” The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average. September’s Index was just released today, November 26th.

This first chart illustrates the price recovery of the Bay Area high-price-tier home market which really got under way in 2012. In both 2012 and 2013, home prices surged in the spring and then plateaued in the summer-autumn. The surge in prices that occurred in spring of 2013 was particularly dramatic, reflecting a frenzied market of huge buyer demand, historically low interest rates, increasing consumer confidence and extremely low inventory. In San Francisco itself, it was further exacerbated by the high-tech-fueled explosion of new wealth. The market has since calmed down somewhat and that cooling is reflected in the Index readings of the past three months (through September).

Case-Shiller Index numbers all reflect home prices as compared to the home price of January 2000, which has been designated with a value of 100. Thus, a reading of 180 signifies home prices 80% above those of January 2000.

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This second chart reflects what has occurred since 1996 showing the cycle of recession, recovery, bubble and decline/recession.

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This third chart compares the 3 different price tiers since 2000. The low-price-tier’s bubble was much more inflated by the subprime lending fiasco – an absurd 176% appreciation over 6 years – which led to a greater crash than the other two price tiers. All 3 tiers have been undergoing dramatic recoveries, but because the bubbles of the low and middle tiers were greater, their recoveries leave them well below their artificially inflated peak values of 2006. It may be a long time before the low-price-tier of houses regains its previous peak values. The high-price-tier, with a much smaller bubble, and little affected by distressed property sales, is now pretty much back to its previous peak of 2007. Many specific neighborhoods in the city of San Francisco have now surpassed previous peak values.

It’s interesting to note that despite the different scales of their bubbles, crashes and recoveries, all three price tiers now have similar overall appreciation rates when compared to year 2000: ranging from 72% for the low-tier, to 80 to 83% appreciation for the mid and high tiers, over the past 13 years. The gap is relatively small and has been converging in recent months.

Different counties, cities and neighborhoods in the Bay Area are dominated by different price tiers.

Remember that if a price drops by 50%, then it must go up by 100% to make up the loss: loss percentages and gain percentages are not created equal.

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