Pier 39 Waterfront Celebration – July 4, 2013

4th-of-July_fireworks

Thursday, July 4th, 2013, at Pier 39, the City of San Francisco will treat spectators to an elaborate fireworks display over the San Francisco Bay. More than 10,000 fireworks are set off from the foot of the Municipal Pier and from barges north of Pier 39, affording an amazing 360-degree Bay view replete with the thunder and thrill of Independence Day pride.

Pier 39 celebrates Independence Day with fun for the whole family. Spend the day rocking out to live bands in the Pier’s Entrance Plaza, watch for sea lions, enjoy the street performers and browse local shops and eateries. Family friendly and free to attend, Pier 39’s Independence Day Celebration is a full-day festival with a truly grand finale. Fireworks start at 9:30 PM.

Thursday, July 4th, 2013 – All day. Fireworks start at 9:30 PM PST
Pier 39 and The Embarcadero
Free to attend

For more information go to www.pier39.com/

Case-Shiller: Different Bubbles, Different Accelerating Recoveries

Note: Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point. With the recovery that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

The lowest price range (terribly affected by foreclosures and distressed sales) fell most dramatically – approximate 60% decline – and though recovering dramatically on a percentage basis, is still way below its peak. It simply has much more loss to make up.

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The upper price range (the top third of unit sales) in the 5-county metro area fell much less during the bubble pop and with the recovery is getting close again to peak values:

2

This chart below illustrates the short-term changes in the C-S high tier index: the recovery in 2012 accelerating in 2013:

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And then looking just atthe city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area: many of its neighborhoods are now blowing past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices and that the rate of appreciation accelerated in the March-May timeframe. This is also for both houses and condos combined, when the C-S charts used above are for house sales only.

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SF Pride Celebration – June 29 – 30, 2013

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The San Francisco Pride Celebration has been said to be “one of the last remaining pride events that can truly be called a rite of passage.” This grand event happens on June 29th and 30th, 2013, in downtown San Francisco in Civic Center at the foot of San Francisco’s historic City Hall where Harvey Milk once stood and addressed Pride-goers more than 30 years ago. With over 200 parade contingents, 300 exhibitors and more than 20 stages and venues, the San Francisco LGBT Pride Celebration and Parade is the largest LGBT gathering in the nation. The Celebration at Civic Center is host to the Main Stage which has showcased such incredible acts as Lady Gaga, the Backstreet Boys, Solange Knowles, the Cliks, Margaret Cho, Kat DeLuna, Inaya Day, Crystal Waters and Big Freedia, among others.

This year’s event theme is “Embrace, Encourage, Empower” as selected by Pride’s Membership at the Annual General Meeting on September 9, 2012. San Francisco Pride is committed to maintaining an event that is accessible to people of all economic backgrounds, so attendance is free. Donations are encouraged, so take a stand for Pride by donating as generously as you can at the event gates. Pride requests a minimum donation of $5 to provide crucial support to this important community event.

Saturday, June 29th from Noon to 6:00 PM PST in San Francisco’s Civic Center*
Sunday, June 30th from 11:00 AM to 6:30 PM PST, SF Civic Center*
Between Van Ness Avenue and Leavenworth Street, Turk and Hayes Streets
Free to the public, donations appreciated.

For more information go to www.sfpride.org/

*Times and map are subject to change.

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762-764 Cole Street, No.1


Seller Represented
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From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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6401 Castle Drive
Oakland, CA
Offered at $1,480,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Interest Rates: Is the Sky Falling on the Housing Market?

The pundits are making dramatic, even doom-laden pronouncements about what is going to happen with interest rates (and the housing market), though they’ve been wrong so many times over the past few years, these “expert” predictions might be taken with salt-shaker’s worth of salt, perhaps with lemon and a nice shot of tequila.

Obviously, interest rates are an important component of the real estate market. But this chart gives a little context to what has occurred recently: the blue column is the average 30-year interest rate for the first 5 months of 2013, when everyone was dancing with glee at how low the rates were; the black line at the end represents the interest rate on Friday, June 6th, though it is true that it briefly hit 2 tenths of a percentage point higher earlier in the week (so if you like, add the tiniest smidgeon more to the black line).

I don’t know where interest rates will go, though they will probably rise over time—and perhaps there will be an upcoming interest-rate shock. But terror seems a bit premature.

http://my.paragon-re.com/Docs/General/SixtyFortyImages/Average_30-Year_Mortgage-Rates.jpg

Average_30-Year_Mortgage-Rates

Int’l LGBT Film Fest TBA

Founded in 1977, the San Francisco International LGBT Film Festival (Frameline) is the longest-running, largest and most widely recognized LGBT film exhibition event in the world. As a community event with an annual attendance of over 55,000, the Festival is the most prominent and well-attended LGBT arts program in the Bay Area. Frameline37 is a competitive film festival with cash prizes attached to each of our Audience Awards for Best Feature, Best Documentary and Best Short. Frameline37 also has two juried awards for Outstanding First Feature and Outstanding Documentary Feature.

Framelines’s mission is to strengthen the diverse lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community and further its visibility by supporting and promoting a broad array of cultural representations and artistic expression in film, video and other media arts. Locals know that this is a fantastic event, so advance tickets are suggested but at-the-door tickets are available until seating runs out. Reserve your seats early so as not to miss out on the event featuring directors, actors and other queer media icons.

June 20th to June 30th, 2013

For more information go to www.frameline.org/festival/

The Economist on Bubbles — Neat Interactive Chart Feature

The Economist has a good article (about the US real estate market not being in a bubble) and created a terrific interactive graph that allows you, by metro area (you have to click on San Francisco to add it to the graph), to compare home price changes in real terms over time, versus average incomes, and versus rents, from 1987 to 2013. San Francisco is at the top of the chart in percentage increase and increases in prices in real terms, but still rates right at the long-term average in home prices versus income and versus rents. The Economist was one of the very first to identify the housing bubble inflating – running strongly against the then current opinion of other pundits – so I think their opinion on whether another bubble is about to burst in the U.S. is worth hearing. (FYI: The do believe there are serious housing bubbles in certain other countries.)

”The verdict: in most markets houses are near or above their long-run values, but none looks bubbly. Price rises in Phoenix, Tampa and Miami have restored values only to their long-run averages. In Las Vegas they are still below that long-run average. Many things could trip up the housing recovery, from stalling job growth to higher mortgage rates; at the moment, a bursting bubble is not one of them.”

You can play around with the interactive chart, and you should read the article below the chart widget:

http://www.economist.com/node/21578927

Here are 3 of their charts with San Francisco added:

Home Price Appreciation in Real Terms (Adjusting for Inflation):

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Home Prices Against Average Income:

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Home Prices versus Rents:

3

Inner Mission Condo Values

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2

San Francisco Marathon – June 16, 2013

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The San Francisco Marathon is a crown jewel for the city. Started in 2001 with the desire to create one of the most beautiful and challenging urban road race marathons in the United States, the Wipro San Francisco Marathon offers an idyllic summer running event. The course was built organically with the local runner in mind, the quintessential San Franciscan healthy outdoor-lover, embodying the natural, sustainable, genuine beauty of the city itself. True to local style, the Marathon values authenticity.

The race prides itself on being a bit different from the pack, like the city itself. The race is more individual, the course more challenging, the terrain more beautiful – an event The Wall Street Journal referred to as “The Race Even Marathoners Fear.” Attracting endurance athletes from around the country and the globe, those who come to this event share the same amazing aspects of the city that the residents love – to embrace and celebrate the running of the country’s toughest big city marathon and reward over 25,000 runners with unparalleled, breathtaking views and a Well Earned Finish.

June 16th, 2013
Full marathon registry fee is $135. Half marathons, progressive marathon, 5k run/walk and munchkin marathons priced accordingly.

For more information and to register go to www.thesfmarathon.com/