January Case-Shiller Index Released

The just released Case-Shiller Index reading for January for the high-tier price segment of the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area declined slightly from December. This reflects seasonal market issues, not a decline in values, and it occurs every year – indeed, the decline was smaller than what is typical.

From January 2012 to January 2013, the Index indicates an 11% increase in house values for this segment of the metro area market. However, the real estate market of the city of San Francisco itself has outperformed the general market of the 5-county metro area. And due to its methodology, the Index is 4 to 7 months behind what is currently occurring in the market. In a quickly appreciating market, that can be a long period of time.

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Our full report on the Case-Shiller Index is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF

SF Spring Celebration – March 31, 2013

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Union Street’s 22nd annual Spring Celebration and Easter Parade, March 31st, 2013 celebrates the diverse community of San Francisco in an outdoor bistro setting. Featuring some of Union Street’s best restaurants and focusing on children’s and family activities, this is a spectacular event for everyone. Described as wonderful, wacky, elegant and fabulous, this street fair and parade include such delights as inflatable bounces, hands-on children’s activities, costumed characters, sophisticated fashions, classic cars, a petting zoo and Easter bonnet contest. Great music, great food and great fun – this is a spectacular event for everyone!

The Easter Parade, known for the last 20 years as the Biggest Little Parade in San Francisco, showcases the unique community of the Bay Area. Featuring marching bands, balloons, self-propelled mini-floats, and a delightful procession of entries, it’s sure to please the whole family.

Sunday, March 31st, 2013 from 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM PST
Parade begins at 2:00 PM
Union Street, from Gough to Fillmore.

For more information go to www.sresproductions.com/union_street_easter.html.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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160 ESTATES DRIVE
PIEDMONT, CA 94611
Offered at $1,850,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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31810 Chantrelle Lane
Gold Beach, OR
Offered at $2,290,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

SF Flower & Garden Show – March 20-24, 2013

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The 28th annual San Francisco Flower & Garden Show, one of the most comprehensive trade events related to the garden decoration sector of the United States, is happening from March 20th to 24th, 2013 at the San Mateo Event Center. View 20 international display gardens, 30 small space gardens, and the world’s largest rotating succulent globe. With growers’ delights such as expert seminars, DIY demonstrations, plant market and aisles of gardening items and gifts, this show is sure to please any horticulturalist. Sample delicious foods at the Chef Stage and relax in the wine garden.

Beginning with the Deadheader’s Garden Gala opening night and preview on March 19th, 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM, benefitting the Morcom Rose Garden in Oakland, guests will enjoy live music, dancing and prizes. This show welcomes leading industry professionals and gardening experts to deliberate industry issues and great opportunities alike. With over 200 exhibitors and 30,000 like minded visitors, the Show is an excellent place to network and increase client databases.

March 19th, 2013 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM PST – Opening Night Gala and Preview
March 20th to 24th – Flower & Garden Show
San Mateo Event Center
Gala tickets: $100 in advance, $125 at the door (includes Show passes)
Show tickets: $20 per day or $30 for multi-pass (good for all 4 days)

For more information go to http://www.sfgardenshow.com/ or email info@gardenshow.com.

March Newsletter: What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco

San Francisco Home Values by Neighborhood & Bedroom Count

The March 2013 Paragon Market

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We’ve just completed our semiannual review of SF house and condo values by average and median prices, average size and average dollar per square foot for sales occurring September 1, 2012 – February 28, 2013, as reported to MLS.

The maps contain median sales price data only, while the tables include the full range of value statistics. (The tables are easier to read, but they’re not as colorful.) If a price is followed by a “k” it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions. Remember that medians and averages are very general statistics.

Further down in the newsletter are charts tracking supply and demand dynamics and price appreciation trends for the city’s residential real estate market. Statistical definitions can be found at the very bottom. For the smaller images, you’ll need to click-to-expand them to really make them decipherable.

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4-Bedroom House Values
This is the table for 4-bedroom house sales over the past 6 months. This link goes to the full analysis by property type, neighborhood and bedroom count.
Neighborhood, Property Type, Bedrooms

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2-Bedroom Condo Median Price Map
A map of median sales prices for 2-bedroom condos around the city. The table in the full analysis provides further statistical measures.
Full Analysis

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Trends in Inventory & Sales Volume
Sometimes there’s nothing like a chart to depict trends. Here one can clearly see the drastic decline in inventory. And this link goes to a chart on Months Supply of Inventory, another statistic of supply and demand:
Months Supply of Inventory

5New Listings Coming on Market
The quantity of new listings ebbs and flows by season, however even accounting for seasonality, the number of new listings coming on market is much lower than usual. And this link shows the increasing demand since the market recovery really got underway in 2012:
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

6Median Price Trends by Month
Monthly price data often fluctuates due to a variety factors. For example, median and average prices almost always drop in January since the higher end of the market usually checks out for the holidays: Values haven’t changed; the demographic of buyers and available inventory changed. However, the clear upward trajectory of prices over the past year is clear in both median and average sales prices.
Average Price Trends

The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value.

AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC’s will be higher than a multi-unit building’s (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views.

The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities.

Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940′s Sunset house with “bedrooms” and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown.

SF St. Patrick’s Day Parade 2013 – March 16, 2013

Well over a hundred colorful floats, marching bands, Irish dance troupes and thousands of observers will gather together to for the San Francisco St. Patrick’s Day Parade and Festival. Saturday, March 16th will be the 162nd annual parade, and the popular Festival joins in the fun for another year. The Parade and Festival are a family friendly celebration of Irish culture and heritage, with San Francisco’s event shining as the largest one of its kind West of the Mississippi.

The Parade kicks off at 11:00 AM (PST) from 2nd and Market Streets and finishes at the Civic Center. Festival activities are scheduled from 11 AM to 5 PM and include, in addition to the Parade, live performance, crafts exhibitors, food and beverage concessions, children’s rides and inflatables, cultural displays and a number of non-profit booths representing the Irish community.

Saturday, March 16, 2013
2nd and Market Streets to the Civic Center
11 AM to 5 PM PST

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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2151 Green Street
San Francisco, CA 94123
Offered at $9,950,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

The San Francisco Metro Area Apartment Building Market

The San Francisco Metro Area Apartment Building Market

The Reis Reports Update Provided by the Paragon Real Estate Group
for the Metro Area of San Francisco, Marin & San Mateo Counties.

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MARKET OVERVIEW: The economy of the West Bay area of metro San Francisco (aka the San Francisco Metropolitan Division) had one of the most dynamic economies in the country in 2012, and is attracting more people from across the globe than its housing market can accommodate. “Having left the heavy-lifting to technology companies until early this year, San Francisco’s non-tech employers are playing a growing role in the city’s labor recovery,” Bloomberg News reported.

The dollar value of qualifying single-property apartment sales in San Francisco in 2012 was $879.2 million in 176 deals according to Reis Transaction Analytics. For the fourth quarter of 2012 Reis reports 57 deals for $253.3 million at a mean price of $230,512 per unit. A shortage of properties for sale is holding back deal volume, as demand is enormous.

The 136,650-unit market-rate investment grade San Francisco apartment market features low and falling vacancies and high and rapidly rising rents. “The San Francisco apartment market is exceptionally active,” according to Western Real Estate Business. “It features extremely low vacancies, rapidly rising rents, and tremendous demand for a very limited inventory of assets.”

OCCUPANCY: The fourth quarter 2012 vacancy rate is just 3.2% according to Reis. The rate is already lower than the 3.6% in 2008 (the low of the previous cycle), but above the 1.2% rate recorded for 2000 at the height of the dotcom boom.

RENTS

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“San Francisco leads the region with an average rent of $2,741 per month,” according to our source. “This number has increased by 5.8% over the past year and 22.4% over the last 24 months. San Mateo County follows with a current average asking rate of $2,128 (up 11.6% in the past 12 months and 26.2% over the past two years).”

“Asking rents continue to soar, despite rent control laws in San Francisco,” according to Western Real Estate Business. While perhaps suppressing overall rents, of course, rent control increases the rent of the market-rate units tracked by Reis by locking up apartments and narrowing the housing stock available to meet new demand. Reis predicts another year of strong rent gains in 2013, followed by moderating but still solid gains thereafter. Reis predicts rent gains will be in the vicinity of 5% in 2013.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: The broader Bay Area is on the brink of a new supply boom, according to Cassidy Turley. “There were 5,300 new multifamily units delivered in 2012 and we are currently tracking another 19,000 units in the development pipeline. San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties are the epicenter of this growth, though we are also seeing development levels quickly rising in the East Bay.”

Whatever level of new supply is added, and many of the huge-development units referenced above could be 10 years or more away from completion, Reis predicts it will be quickly snapped up. With modest deviations, net absorption is expected to match up with new availability through 2017, keeping the vacancy rate very low.

SELECTED SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS

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The 15,771-unit Civic Center/Downtown submarket has a fourth quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 3.7% and an average asking rent of $1,596 per month. The Civic Center/Downtown submarket led the rest in units sold in 2012 at 1,065, and dollar value of sales at $148 million.

In the 8,084-unit Marina/Pacific Heights submarket, the fourth quarter vacancy rate is reported by Reis at 2.1%, the lowest in San Francisco proper, with an average asking rent at $2,348 per month. Among submarkets with substantial sales volumes, Marina/Pacific Heights leads in price per unit at $378,532.

The 15,692-unit South of Market (SoMa) submarket has a vacancy rate of 4.3%, highest among the submarkets (though hardly high), and an average asking rent of $2,485 per month, the second highest market-wide. Out of 544 condominium units completed in the West Bay market in 2012, 473 were in SoMa.

The 8,381-unit North Marin submarket has a vacancy rate of just 1.6%, and an average asking rent of $1,601 per month according to Reis.

For the 10,639-unit South San Mateo submarket, Reis reports a vacancy rate of 1.9%, second lowest among the submarkets, and an average asking rent of $1,740 per month. This submarket is near booming Silicon Valley.

POLITICAL: “San Francisco could soon be home to some of the tiniest apartments in the country: studios for up to two people that include a bathroom, kitchen, and a living area measuring 10 feet by 15 feet,” according to the Associated Press. “The Board of Supervisors approved legislation allowing construction of up to 375 micro units measuring a minimum of 220-square feet.

“Back from the graveyard of dead 2010 ballot proposals is a plan that would compel owners of ‘soft-story’ buildings to retrofit them for earthquake safety by 2020,” Curbed SF reported. “San Francisco’s Board of Supes will revisit the issue, which would apparently apply only to wood-frame buildings built before 1978, with at least three stories.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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756 El Pintado Road
Danville, CA 94526
Offered at $5,500,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.