Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood

Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

The charts below are based upon transactions reported to MLS for 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Of course, the era, style, amenities and average size of homes will vary widely between and within neighborhoods.

These charts will be easier to read if you adjust your screenview to zoom 125% or 150%. A San Francisco neighborhood map can be found at the bottom of this report.

Where to Buy a HOUSE for Less than $1 million in San Francisco

The overall median HOUSE price in the city at the end of 2014 was about $1,150,000. The vast majority of house sales under $1,000,000 occur in a large swath of neighborhoods forming a giant L shape, down the west side of the city, from Outer Richmond south through Sunset and Parkside to Ingleside and Oceanview, and then sweeping  east across the southern border of San Francisco through Excelsior and Portola to Bayview and Hunter’s Point. The southern border neighborhoods are by far the most affordable house markets in the city. (They don’t contain many condos at this point, though some big developments are planned.)

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted – to be as current as possible – are for all house sales in each area in the second half of the year.

2014_House-Sales_Up-to-1m

Where to Buy a CONDO, CO-OP OR TIC for Under $1 million in San Francisco

The overall SF median condo price at the end of 2014 was about $950,000, so the majority of condo and TIC sales are under $1m. These sales take place in virtually every area of the city that features these property types, but a studio unit in Nob Hill will cost the same as a 1 or 2 bedroom unit in Downtown. Some areas with large volumes of sales, such as South Beach/South of Market or Pacific Heights/Marina, offer units for sale at virtually every price point. In such districts, what will vary will be the prestige and amenities of the building, the size and graciousness of the unit, the floor the unit is located on, whether parking is included, and the existence of views and deeded outside space (decks, patios, or, less often, yards).

In the general category of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco, condos make up almost 90% of sales, TICs almost 10% and stock co-ops 1 to 2%. TICs typically sell at a significant discount (15% – 25%) to similar condos, but there are a number of factors that affect the exact price differential.

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted are for all condo, co-op and TIC sales in each area in the second half of the year.

2014_Condo-TIC-Sales_Up-to-1m

Spending $1 Million to $1.5 Million

In this price point for houses, one starts moving into the big circle of neighborhoods in the middle of the city plus the Richmond District in the northwest. Within this collection of neighborhoods, one will typically get more house for one’s money in the Sunset, Parkside or Outer Richmond than in Miraloma Park, Bernal Heights or Glen Park – and much more than in neighborhoods such as Noe and Eureka Valleys.

In the charts below, the horizontal columns reflect the number of sales in each area, while the dollar amounts reflect average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this price range in the specified areas.

2014_SF-House-Sales_1m-1499k

Condo, co-op and TIC sales in this price range are mostly concentrated in those areas where newer (and expensive) condo developments have come on market – and continue to arrive in increasing numbers – over the last 10 years, as well as, of course, in high-end neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights & Russian Hill, and Noe, Cole & Eureka Valleys.

Dollar per square foot values can be affected by a wide variety of factors, including size: All things being equal, larger condos sell at lower dollar per square prices than smaller units. The greater Cole Valley area condos in this price range average over 1460 square feet (think: large, gracious, Edwardian flats), while South Beach condos in this price segment average about 1225 square feet (newer, modern, high-tech, often high-rise). That is part of the reason for the discrepancy in dollar per square foot values between these two areas.

2014_SF-Condo-Sales_1m-1499k

Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to $2 million

As the price range goes up, the number of sales begin to narrow. House sales in this price segment predominate in the central Realtor District 5, the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys area; District 4, the St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill-West Portal area; and District 1, Richmond-Lone Mountain-Lake Street. District 5 is the most expensive district for home sales in this price range, as can be seen in the average dollar per square foot values.

2014_SF-House-Sales_1500-1999k

Buying a LUXURY HOME in San Francisco

For the sake of this report, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales. What you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely – a large, gorgeous, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.

Luxury home sales in San Francisco are dominated by the swath of established, prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff through Pacific Heights and Russian Hill to Telegraph Hill, by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, and, to a lesser extent, the smaller neighborhoods around St. Francis Wood. For luxury condos, the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay area has a large and growing presence as big, dramatic, expensive condo projects have sprouted there over the past 15 years.

Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC Sales

As one can see below, no area has more luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales overall than the Pacific Heights-Marina district, but the South Beach-Yerba Buena area is the fastest growing luxury condo market and will probably take first position in the not too distant future due to continuing new construction. The average dollar per square foot values for luxury condos in the major neighborhoods run $1001 in the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, $1049 in the Pacific Heights-Marina district, $1195 in the Russian-Nob-Telegraph Hills district, and $1328 in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area (think: new, luxury, high-floor units with spectacular views). For the absolute best units, dollar per square foot values can exceed $2000.

2014_SF-Condo-Sales_1500k-plus

Luxury HOUSE Sales

It wasn’t so long ago that houses selling in Realtor District 5, the greater Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys area (which includes Clarendon, Corona and Ashbury Heights), for over $2 million were outliers. But that is not the case any longer – now, extremely wealthy people (such as Mark Zuckerberg) are buying homes here. Still for the time being, the very highest end of the luxury house market continues to be dominated by Realtor District 7, the Pacific & Presidio Heights-Marina area (which is generally home to the largest mansions in the city). There are several other significant areas for these large, expensive houses, such as Lake Street/Sea Cliff/Jordan Park, St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill and Lower Pacific Heights.

Note that dollar per square foot values vary widely between these districts.

2014_SF-House-Sales_2m-plus

Median Prices for 2-Bedroom Condos and 3-4 Bedroom Houses
in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

2014_2BR-Condo-Median-Prices

2014_3-4BR-House-Median-Prices

Distribution of House Sales by Sales Price

This chart breaks down 2014 San Francisco houses sales by sales price segment in $250,000 increments: the $750,000 to $1,000,000 segment (dark green column) had the most sales — the median house sales price over the entire period was approximately $1,060,000.

2014_House-Sales-Price-Breakdown

Distribution of Condo & TIC Sales by Sales Price

The largest number of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco over this 12 month period was also in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 price segment (dark green column) — the median condo sales price over the period was approximately $950,000. Median sales prices of houses and condos in San Francisco have been converging lately as new construction condos – now coming on the market in increasing quantities – raise overall values.

2014_Condo-TIC_Sales-Prices-Breakdown

San Francisco Neighborhood Map

San_Francisco_Neighborhood_Map

SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch (Central Waterfront), Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

How the Bay Area Spends its Money



From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

5232166

5334 Valley Vista Way
Sparks, NV, 89431
Offered at $1,650,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

Penthouses, Probates, Lofts, Mansions & Fixer-Uppers

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

How many San Francisco home sales were… Victorians, Edwardians or Art Deco? Condos in doorman buildings? Artist live-work lofts? Probate or bank sales? Without parking? Under $500,000? Over $5 million? Tenant occupied? Had Golden Gate or Bay Bridge views? What were the oldest house sale, the biggest condo sale and the median sales price for a 2-unit building?

Below are answers to those and a hundred other questions about real estate prices, neighborhoods, architecture, amenities, views, home types and sizes. San Francisco has one of the most interesting real estate markets in the world and we hope you enjoy some of the details.

Adjusting your screen-view to zoom 125% or 150% will make the charts that much easier to read. A map of SF Neighborhoods can be found at the bottom of this report.

 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Map of San Francisco Neighborhoods

16

SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

Sales information as reported to and described in San Francisco MLS through late November 2014. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

1828796

5728 River Birch Drive
Reno, NV 89511
Offered at $1,150,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Thirty Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles

Updated Report, December 2014

Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going — much more than dwelling in the immediacy of the present with excitable pronouncements of “The market’s crashing and won’t recover in our lifetimes!” or “The market’s crazy hot and the only place it can go is up!”

Market Cycles: Simplified Overviews
Up, Down, Flat, Up, Down, Flat…(Repeat) The first chart below charts changes in dollar values, according to the Case-Shiller Index method (January 2000 = a home value of 100). The second chart graphs ups and downs by percentage changes at each turning point.

1 2

Smoothing out the bumps delivers the simplified overviews above for the past 30 years. Whatever the phase of the cycle, up or down, while it’s going on people think it will last forever: Every time the market crashes, the consensus becomes that real estate won’t recover for decades. But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, inflation builds up over the years, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up. In the early eighties, mid-nineties and in 2012, after about 4 years of a recessionary housing market, this repressed demand jumps back in (or “explodes” might be a good description) and prices start to rise again. It’s not unusual for a big surge in values to occur in the first couple of years after a recovery begins.

All bubbles are ultimately based on irrational and/or criminal behavior, whether exemplified by junk bonds, Savings & Loan frauds, dotcom stock hysteria, “Dow 30,000″ exuberance, “the end of the business cycle” nonsense, gorging on unsustainable debt, runaway greed (without any corresponding desire to produce anything of value) or dishonest financial engineering, but the most recent subprime-financing/ loan-fraud bubble was even more abnormal than usual, because it was fueled by large numbers of buyers purchasing homes that they clearly couldn’t afford (liar loans, deceptive teaser rates and the abysmal decline in underwriting standards) with no actual investment in the properties being bought (no down payment, 100%+ loans).

This Recovery vs. Previous Recoveries

3

The light blue columns in the above chart graph the home-value appreciation that occurred in the first three years of each recovery – our latest rebound has been somewhat quicker than other recoveries, probably due to 1) the depth of the previous market decline, and 2) the huge, high-tech employment, population and wealth boom that has played out in San Francisco and nearby counties. The gray columns chart the appreciation of past recoveries from the beginning to peak value for each cycle, and the red bars delineate the percentage declines from those peaks, pursuant to the market adjustments that occurred. As always, note that market appreciation and depreciation rates can vary widely by neighborhood.

Surprisingly consistent: Over the past 30+ years, the period between a recovery beginning and a bubble popping has run 5 to 7 years. We are currently about 3 years into the current recovery, which started in early 2012. Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained — among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years. In this current recovery, those homes hit hardest by the subprime loan crisis — typically housing at the lowest end of the price scale in the less affluent neighborhoods, which experienced by far the biggest bubble and biggest crash — are taking longer to re-attain peak values. However, higher priced homes — which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo Counties — have already surged past their previous peaks.

This does not mean that these recently recurring time periods necessarily reflect some natural law in housing market cycles, or that they can be relied upon to predict the future. Real estate markets can be affected by a bewildering number of economic, political and even natural-event factors that are exceedingly difficult to predict.

Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981

It’s much harder to decipher any cycles in 30-year mortgage rates over the same period, but rates remain astonishingly low by any historical measure, and this, of course, plays a huge role in the ongoing cost of homeownership.

4

******************************

In the 2 charts below tracking the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Area, the data points refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher.
1983 through 1995
(After Recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums5

In the above chart, the country is just coming out of the late seventies, early eighties recession – huge inflation, stagnant economy (“stagflation”) and incredibly high interest rates (hitting 18%). As the economy recovered, the housing market started to appreciate and this surge in values began to accelerate deeper into the decade. Over 6 years, the market appreciated about 100%. Finally, the eighties version of irrational exuberance — junk bonds, stock market swindles, the Savings & Loan implosion, as well as the late 1989 earthquake here in the Bay Area — ended the party.

Recession arrived, home prices sank, sales activity plunged and the market stayed basically flat for 4 to 5 years. Still, even after the decline, home values were 70% higher than when the boom began in 1984.

******************************
1996 to Present

(After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums, Recovery6

This next cycle looks similar but elongated. In 1996, after years of recession, the market suddenly took off and continued to accelerate til 2001. The dotcom bubble pop and September 2001 attacks created a market hiccup, but then the subprime and refinance insanity, degraded loan underwriting standards, mortgage securitization, and claims that real estate never declines, super-charged a housing bubble. Overall, from 1996 to 2006/2008, the market went through an astounding period of appreciation. (Different areas hit peak values at times from 2006 to early 2008.) The air started to go out of some markets in 2007, and in September 2008 came the financial market crash.

Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures — most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range. The least affluent areas got hammered hardest by distressed sales and price declines; the most affluent were typically least affected. Then the market stayed flat for about 4 years, albeit with a few short-term fluctuations. Supply and demand dynamics began to change in mid-2011, leading to the market recovery of 2012.

******************************
San Francisco’s Recent Recovery7 8

In 2011, San Francisco began to show signs of perking up. An improving economy, soaring rents, low interest rates and growing buyer demand coupled with a low inventory of listings began to put upward pressure on prices. In 2012, as in 1996, the market abruptly grew frenzied with competitive bidding. The city’s affluent neighborhoods led the recovery, and those considered particularly desirable by newly wealthy, high-tech workers showed the largest gains. However, virtually the entire city soon followed to experience similar rapid price appreciation.

San Francisco median home sales prices increased dramatically in 2012, accelerated further in the first half of 2013 and then again in the first half of 2014. In the second half of 2014, after the spring frenzy had cooled off, home prices in the more affluent neighborhoods flattened or ticked down a little, while values in the more affordable neighborhoods continued to tick up. However, among numerous other factors, seasonality plays a distinct role in real estate markets, so it’s always wisest to look at longer term trends than to jump to conclusions about where the market is headed based upon a few months or a couple quarters of sales data.

******************************
Different Bay Area Market Segments:
Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

1990 to Present9

Again, all numbers in the Case-Shiller charts above relate to a January 2000 value of 100: A reading of 182 signifies a home value 82% above that of January 2000. These 3 charts illustrate how different market segments in the 5-county SF metro area had bubbles, crashes and now recoveries of enormously different magnitudes, mostly depending on the impact of subprime lending. The lower the price range, the bigger the bubble and crash. The upper third of sales by price range (far right chart) was affected least by the subprime fiasco and has now basically recovered peak values of 2006-2007. In the city itself, where many of our home sales would constitute an ultra-high price segment, if Case-Shiller broke it out, many of our neighborhoods have risen to new peak values. The lowest price segment (far left chart), more prevalent in other counties, may not recover peak values for years. If one disregarded the different bubbles and crashes, home price appreciation for all three segments since January 2000 is now (autumn 2014) almost exactly the same, in the range of 96 to 97%.

All data from sources deemed reliable,
but may contain errors and is subject to revision.
All numbers are approximate and percentage changes will vary slightly
depending on the exact begin and end dates used for recoveries, peak prices
and bottom-of-market values.

New Case-Shiller Index Report

The Case-Shiller Index for September was released today. Note that it will mostly reflect sales negotiated in August or before, during the slower summer sales season. (The next Index, published in late December, will begin to reflect transactions negotiated in September and the start of the autumn sales season.) These 2 charts pertain to the upper third of sales for 5 Bay Area counties – upper third by price range. The majority of home sales in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo are in this upper price tier.

As noted in recent Paragon reports, after the feverish market and home price appreciation of spring 2014, home values in the higher-end neighborhoods typically flattened or ticked down a bit, while more affordable homes generally continued to tick up in price.

Short-term fluctuations are not particularly meaningful until confirmed over the longer term, since markets fluctuate for a variety of reasons including seasonality.

image005

image006

San Francisco Neighborhood Appreciation Rates

Which Neighborhoods Have Appreciated Most and Why?

4th Quarter 2014, Paragon Special Report

———————————————————————
Percentage Appreciation Rates

2010/2011 – Present

This analysis is based upon review of both median sales price and average dollar-per-square-foot data. However, there is no San Francisco or Noe Valley median or average home that one can use as the unchanging basis for comparison year after year, only differing collections of unique homes selling in different times and circumstances. Please see notes at the end of this report regarding our methodology.

Adjusting your screen-view to zoom 125% or 150% will make the charts easier to read. A San Francisco neighborhood MAP can be found at the bottom of this webpage.

Appreciation-Percentages_by-Neighborhood

The above chart illustrates the approximate home value appreciation from the bottom of the market (2010-2011) to present (2014 YTD), as illustrated by the dark gray bars, and the overall appreciation or depreciation to date since the last market peak (2006-2008), as illustrated by the red numbers.

Over the past 3 years, in our latest market recovery, San Francisco neighborhoods have typically appreciated 40 – 50%, with an overall increase of approximately 44%. This correlates well with the Case-Shiller Index for the Metro Area, which estimates appreciation in the range of 42% – 46% for Bay Area mid and high-priced homes. As one can see in the percentages in red, most of the city’s neighborhoods have now exceeded, often by substantial margins, their previous peak values before the bubble popped. However, some of the neighborhoods hit hardest by the subprime crisis are still below their previous peaks.

Looking at the 3 neighborhoods with the highest appreciation rates from the bottom of the market to present, there are distinctly different reasons why they stand out:

  • Bayview: Up 75% from 2010/11; but still down 12% from its market peak in 2006. Due to subprime lending, Bayview’s bubble was so big, its market crashed terribly when it popped. During the downturn, its housing market became dominated by distressed sales and it fell so far that now, with the disappearance of the subprime effect, its recovery has been equally dramatic. But because its bubble was so large, it is still below its 2006 peak value. The markets in the Bayview and nearby neighborhoods are quite strong, because they contain the most affordable houses in the city.
  • Inner Mission: Up 63% from 2010/11; up 46% from 2007 (pre-crash peak). The Mission’s appreciation rate is explained by a huge change in its buyer demographics over recent years: Though it had been slowly gentrifying since the nineties, more recently it became a highly sought-after home location for young, hip, affluent, high-tech buyers. They love the Valencia Street corridor, being close to Dolores Park, the sunny weather and the (disappearing) edginess – and the speed of gentrification shifted into a feverishly high gear. This change has also entailed the construction of expensive, new, condo projects (typically selling for $1000 per square foot and up), which is also pushing up average and median values.
  • Bernal Heights: Up 57% since market bottom; up 24% from its previous market peak in 2007. Bernal Heights has become one of the most popular, more affordable, go-to neighborhoods for house buyers who like the neighborhood ambiance of the general Noe Valley area, but were priced out there by its rocketing prices. Bernal Heights’ houses – with a median price about 45% lower than Noe Valley’s – have looked likeextremely good values in comparison. Buyer competition for new listings became particularly fierce in the past year or so.

———————————————————————

To give context to the appreciation rates, this next chart delineates actual 2014 YTD median home sales prices. In the second half of 2014, after a frenzied spring market, appreciation generally flattened or even ticked down a little in the more expensive areas of the city, but continued to tick up in the more affordable districts. On the other hand, the more expensive neighborhoods began their recoveries in late 2011 and early 2012, much earlier than the less affluent districts.

Appreciation-Analysis_Median-Prices

———————————————————————
Dollar Appreciation Rates

Whether you are a buyer, seller or real estate agent, dollars are more real than percentages: Hearing that a home has jumped hundreds of thousands of dollars in value in a relatively short time period grabs the attention more than a percentage change. The higher priced neighborhoods sometimes have lower percentage appreciation rates than less expensive areas in a given time period, but the dollar-amount changes can make the eyes pop:

In Pacific & Presidio Heights, the theoretical “median house” now costs over $1.3 million more than it did 3 years ago. In Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys, the increase is over $700,000.

Appreciation-Dollars_by-Neighborhood

———————————————————————
Boom, Bust, Recovery

2000 – 2014

Different neighborhoods and price segments experienced bubbles, crashes and now recoveries of significantly different magnitudes. The city’s less affluent neighborhoods – on this chart illustrated by Bayview, Excelsior & Portola – had much bigger bubbles and subsequently much bigger crashes, both inflated by subprime lending issues. Bayview saw an astounding 136% appreciation from 2000 to 2006, followed by a huge 50% drop from 2006 to 2010/2011. Excelsior and Portola were an order of magnitude behind with 90% appreciation and 30% decline. Generally speaking, the mid and high-end segments of the city’s market appreciated 60% – 70% from 2000 to pre-crash peak, and then dropped by 15% to 20% subsequent to the 2008 market crash. And, as mentioned earlier, on average the city’s home values have now increased 40% – 50% over the past 3 years, with some neighborhoods outperforming the general range.

According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Bay Area homes of all price segments are now, regardless of their different ups and downs over the past 15 year, about 96% above their prices in year 2000 (as of late 2014). This may suggest that an equilibrium is being achieved in the market.

Note that the tremendous burst in home price appreciation actually began in 1996, subsequent to the early nineties recession. Prices approximately doubled in the 5 years 1996 to 2000. This earlier period is not included in these charts, nor is the smaller, short-term decline following the dotcom bubble bursting in 2001 broken out.

Appreciation-since-2000_by-Neighborhood

———————————————————————
Housing Cost: Today vs. Previous Peak Values

Comparing current San Francisco home values to previous peak values before the 2008 financial markets crash, we estimate general home-price appreciation in San Francisco of approximately 15% to 20% over the past 7 years. However, mortgage interest rates are now about 35% lower than in 2007 and there has been inflation of approximately 15% over the same period. Thus, we estimate that, adjusting a normal 20% – 25% down-payment plus resulting loan expense to 2007 dollars, the current cost of housing – mortgage and property taxes – is about 12% lower now than it was in 2007. This is a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on a number of basic assumptions – and it would obviously vary widely by neighborhood – but we believe it to be generally valid.

The Bay Area’s current market recovery has lasted about 3 years now. Over the past 35 years of cycles, recoveries have typically lasted in the range of 5 to 7 years, which doesn’t guarantee that this one shall follow past patterns.

———————————————————————

Important notes regarding this report:

The estimates in this analysis should be considered very approximate since there are different ways to evaluate home value movements – such as median price and average dollar per square foot – and they don’t always agree, nor are they perfectly reliable. Besides which, other factors can affect these statistics besides changes in values, such as big changes in the distressed, new-construction or luxury home segments. There are also a wide variety of economic and political factors that can and do impact real estate markets.

Different San Francisco neighborhoods peaked in value at varying times before the bubble popped on 9/15/08: Generally speaking, the least affluent areas peaked in 2006; the mid-price segment in 2007; and the high-end market hit peak prices in late 2007/early 2008. We use the 2-year period of 2010-2011 as the basis for “bottom of the market” values, and we use aggregate 2014 YTD values (as of mid-late November) for “present” values. If one cherry-picked specific months or quarters for the absolute lowest and highest values in each neighborhood, the percentage and dollar swings illustrated would be much more dramatic than with the broader periods used in this report, but, we believe, no more meaningful.

This map of neighborhoods is according to the San Francisco Association of Realtors,

San_Francisco_Neighborhood_Map

SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

———————————————————————
Statistics are generalities that may fluctuate for a number of reasons, including but not limited to changes in home values. There is no San Francisco “median home” or “average home,” that one can use as the unchanging basis for analysis year after year, only differing collections of unique homes – and how these general statistics apply to any particular property is impossible to say without a custom market analysis. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

4791959

172/174 Snug Harbor
Glenbrook, NV
Offered at $4,150,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Holiday Season Events 2014