Archive for February 2013 | Monthly archive page

Bernal Heights House Sales

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Bay Area sees patchwork recovery from housing crash

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“According to an analysis by this newspaper of home values by ZIP code, with higher priced homes, such as the core of Silicon Valley and parts of San Francisco, have recovered much of the home equity lost in the crash. The data is for all types of homes: single-family, condos and townhouses. But neighborhoods with low-cost homes, especially those in parts of Alameda and Contra Costa counties, are still far below peak values, hurt by the waves of foreclosures that struck those areas.”

The full article with map is here: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_20402461/bay-area-sees-patchwork-recovery-from-housing-crash

330 Mission Bay Blvd., No. 202


Represented Buyer
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Case-Shiller’s December Report: 10th consecutive increase

The December report of the Case-Shiller Index for the 5-County SF Metro Area was released today, showing its 10th consecutive increase. In the high-tier-price index, which applies to the city better than their other indexes, but still understates the increases we’ve seen here, C-S shows a 9% increase in prices in the past 12 months, December 2011 to December 2012. Again, the real estate market of the city of San Francisco itself has outperformed the general market of the 5-county metro area.

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Our full report on the Case-Shiller Index is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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1165 Lakeshore
Incline Village, 89451
Offered at $12,000,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Bay Area Home Prices Projected to Surge

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“Looking at 245 Bay Area ZIP codes, Zillow projects that 244 will see home values ratchet up by significant margins in 2013, with 27 ZIPs seeing double-digit appreciation…Popular San Francisco neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, the Castro, Twin Peaks, the Mission and Bernal Heights are poised for double-digit appreciation, along with Menlo Park, Larkspur, Palo Alto, Alameda and North Berkeley, Zillow predicts.”

The full article is here: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-home-prices-projected-to-surge-4288392.php

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

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1558 SAN REMO CT
LIVERMORE CA, 94550
Offered at $$1,315,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Chinese New Year Parade 2013 – February 23, 2013

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Celebrating the Year of the Snake (Lunar Year 4711), the Southwest Airlines Chinese New Year Parade will be held on Saturday, February 23, 2013. Stepping off from 2nd & Market at 5:15 PM PST , more than 100 entries will participate. This beloved and breathtaking San Francisco tradition has been going on for over 60 years, warming hearts and electrifying the senses with its gorgeous floats, traditional costumes and fantastical creatures. One crowd favorite, the Gum Lung (Golden Dragon), is a stunning 268’ long and takes a team of over 100 men and women from the martial arts group, White Crane, to carry its undulating form through the streets of San Francisco.

This year brings a new parade route beginning at Second and Market Street, going up Post to Powell, turning right on Sutter to Kearny and ending at Columbus. This is the largest Lunar New Year celebration outside of Asia. The New Year Parade is one of the finishing touches of a two week celebration and festival that includes the Flower Fair, Community Fair, Jamboree, Run and the Miss Chinatown USA Pageant and Ball.

February 23, 2013 at 5:15 PM.
2nd and Market Street, San Francisco.

For more information, go to www.chineseparade.com

2013 SoMa-South Beach Market Report

The South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena
& Mission Bay Condo Market

The Paragon Market Report

More condos sell in San Francisco’s South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city: This is where by far the greatest number of new condos has been built in the last 20 years. The market here heated up very rapidly in 2012, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has dwindled (contributing to the severe inventory crunch). This area is one of the world centers for high-tech and bio-tech businesses and homebuyers, and the ferocious demand competing for the very limited inventory have caused prices to jump dramatically.

Luxury condos here, in high prestige buildings, typically with spectacular views, sell for among the highest dollar per square foot values in the city. The largest sale reported to MLS in 2012 was $7,850,000 for a unit at the Millennium.

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Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 775 transactions totaling almost $700 million in sales in these neighborhoods. We’ve closed more than 170 sales of $1,000,000 plus, and almost two dozen of $2,000,000 or more. This is an area we know and love well.
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Sales by Price Range

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Long-Term Trends in Values

The following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distressed condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach/Yerba Buena and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends.

Here, we’ve limited the analyses to sales under $1,800,000: though this area has a large luxury component, the very high-end sales generally distort the averages for the vast majority of sales.

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Sales Over, Under and At List Price

As the market gets hotter, the percentage of listings selling for over asking price increases.

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Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos

A comparison of Median Price trends for 2-BR condos in 5 of the city’s neighborhoods. All 5 have been showing median price appreciation, but none more so than the South Beach and Yerba Buena neighborhoods.

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Number of Listings Sold

Very strong unit sales numbers in recent quarters and they would have been significantly higher if there were more listings available to buy. Distressed condo sales are rapidly declining as the market recovery has gained momentum.

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Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

An excellent statistic for measuring buyer demand against supply of inventory. The percentage is now at the highest point in memory.

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Condos for Sale

The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is seriously inadequate to meet market demand.

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The New-Development Condo Market

The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area: it’s been estimated that over 10,000 were built here in the first 10 years of the century. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Now, new construction is recovering in a big way — many big new projects are planned by some very well-known developers — but it will probably take about 2 years, more or less, before we see a large quantity of newly built condos coming on the market.

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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low — below 2 months – is considered to be indicative of a strong “Seller’s Market.”

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Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above

The number of condos selling for $1m and above is at its highest point in years: Sales increased in the 4th quarter even as inventory fell. Demand for higher-end condos in the best buildings is quite competitive now.

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Distressed Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area

Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area had more distressed condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distressed listings and sales has been rapidly declining with the market turnaround and looks to disappear completely in the near future.

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MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”

DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.

Paragon’s Noe Valley/Castro/Cole Valley Market Update

San Francisco Residential Market Trends

Realtor District 5: Noe Valley/ Castro/ Cole Valley

A market overview for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights,
Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights,
Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle

Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco’s central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. Changes in general statistics do not constitute exact measures of changes in values: what’s important are the trends.

District 5 real estate soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the market meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly, stabilized in 2009 and 2010 and finally started to turn around in 2011. In 2012, the competition between buyers became ferocious for a very low inventory of homes for sale, with many listings selling very quickly in multiple-offer bidding situations. This is still the case as 2013 begins. Due to this dynamic, values here have been rapidly climbing.
Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 1500
transactions totaling $1.7 billion in sales in District 5, making us 1 of the top 2 brokers in
these neighborhoods we know and love so well.

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Statistics can be affected by many factors besides changes in value, including seasonality, inventory supply, buyer trends, a few very large sales, the quality of the data reported, financing conditions and distressed sales.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”

DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.