Archive for October 2012 | Monthly archive page

August Case-Shiller Index

The Case-Shiller Index for August for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was released today. It showed a small improvement from July’s reading and is now at its highest point since December 2008.

http://my.paragon-re.com/Docs/General/SixtyFortyImages/Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011.jpg

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

777 Clayton Street, San Francisco (Haight Ashbury)
Offered at $1,650,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

NYTimes Article: In San Francisco, Glass-and-Steel Condos Rising by the Bay


Darcy Padilla for The New York Times

ROUGHLY two decades ago, during an earlier Internet start-up boom, many entrepreneurs and fast-typing coders and engineers set up shop in a still-gritty area of this city: South of Market Street.

The young tech crowd rented — and sometimes bought — in commercial buildings in this former warehouse area, converting them into “work-live” spaces where they operated their nascent companies and slept (once in awhile).

See the the complete article at NYTimes.com: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/realestate/in-san-francisco-glass-and-steel-condos-rising-by-the-bay.html

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

5 Sandringham Pl
Offered at $1,895,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

SF rated #1 for real estate investment, development and home building in 2013

“San Francisco was rated first for investment, development and home building in the 2013 “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report by the Urban Land Institute and PwC. The report says: “In 2013, San Francisco steals the triple crown from Washington, D.C., receiving top billing in the Emerging Trends investment, development, and housing categories. ‘San Francisco is driven by growth and a strong jobs outlook, led by technology and a structural change away from suburban and toward downtown.’”

Read the complete article at SFGate.com: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Which-cities-are-the-best-bets-for-real-estate-3957132.php

San Francisco Residential Market Trends in Realtor District 5: Noe/ Castro/ Haight

A statistical market overview for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley & the Castro, Cole Valley,
Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights,
Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle

Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco’s central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview.

District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the market meltdown in September 2008. Values fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. The market started to turn around in 2011 and, now in 2012, the competition between buyers has become ferocious: inventory is very low and many of the listings are selling very quickly in multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations. This is exerting considerable upward pressure on prices: generally speaking, values are soaring once again.

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MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”

DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.

Bernal Heights Fiesta On The Hill – October 21

For more than 20 years this neighborhood street fair has drawn people to this fun family-friendly event featuring pony rides, a petting zoo, pumpkin patch, local artists and live music!

Click here for more information!

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

505 Scenic Avenue, Piedmont
Offered at $2,495,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Newsletter: Is the SF Market Easing a Little?

Is the Ferocious SF Market Easing a Little?

October 2012 San Francisco Market Update

September brought a burst of new inventory that helped satisfy some of the fierce buyer demand for San Francisco homes. Anecdotally, word on the street is that the market may have calmed down a little after Labor Day: not every listing is selling immediately amid high numbers of competing offers — though this may simply reflect the temporary increase in new listings, or sellers too hopeful in their asking prices. But it also appears that home price appreciation has been stabilizing or at least slowing in the last quarter after the big jump earlier in the year. It’s still too early for conclusions: Since most statistics are like looking in a rearview mirror, what is happening today will only become clear in coming months.

Even if the market has eased a little, it is still very strong and very competitive by any historical measure.

Below are 2 updated, mapped analyses of median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. Almost all the current values reflect a significant jump from 2011: for the city overall, the increase has been in the 10 to 12% range, but it can vary from 4% to 18% by neighborhood and property type.

Median Sales Prices

After the big jump early in the year, median price appreciation for both house and condos appear to have stabilized or slowed – at least for the city as a whole. (Market conditions vary widely by neighborhood.) The median sales price for non-distressed SF condos now slightly exceeds the median price in 2007, the last peak of the market, while that of SF houses is only 5% below 2007. We have similar charts going back 15 to 30 years available on our website.

Inventory

September had the highest number of new listings of any month in the past year, though well below previous Septembers: 760 new home listings in September 2012 vs. 888 in 2011 and 1138 in 2010. This significantly, if temporarily, expanded the choice of homes available to buyers. But now, in October, the number of new listings is dwindling again and inventory is still drastically low by any historical measure. Overall, in the third quarter, there were 1100 fewer listings than in the same period last year, but the number of sales increased by 21%.

2-Bedroom Condo Median Prices

In the 5 areas shown, condo values jumped across the board, though the most dramatic increase from the bottom of the market has been in South Beach/Yerba Buena — where in the last 2 quarters, the median price surged ahead of that for Pacific and Presidio Heights. Noe and Eureka Valleys and surrounding neighborhoods, SoMa and Hayes Valley/NoPa have also seen large increases. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Average Dollar per Square Foot House Values

Though pretty much all SF neighborhoods are seeing increases in dollar per square foot values for houses, the more affluent districts 5 (Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys) and 7 (Pacific Heights-Marina) have seen some of the largest jumps. In the last 2 quarters, District 5 hit a point matching the peak of the market in 2007. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Luxury Home Sales

Comparing the 3rd Quarter 2012 with 3rd Quarter 2011, MLS listings of San Francisco homes of $1,500,000 and above increased by 23% and sales soared by 54%. This map shows where those sales occurred: 18 in the Sea Cliff/ Lake Street/ Richmond district; 26 in the Pacific Heights/ Marina district; 21 in Russian/ Nob/ Telegraph Hills; 19 in the greater SoMa/South Beach area; 53 in the Noe/ Eureka/ Cole Valleys district; 10 in the St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill district; 2 in Potrero Hill and 3 in Bernal Heights. The highest prices are still generally achieved in the band of very affluent neighborhoods running across the northern boundary of the city, though growth in the number of luxury home sales is strongest in the central and northeastern areas.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

Still bumping along at the lowest levels in memory. MSI reflects the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the existing rate of sales. Lower MSI means higher demand as compared to supply.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

Houses, condos and TICs all hit historic highs in the 54% to 60% range earlier in the year, but have now fallen back a bit. In the third quarter, TICs saw a rather large decrease, but their percentage is still much higher than in the last four calendar years. The percentages for houses and condos are still extraordinarily high. This statistic is one of the clearest measures of supply and demand.

Average Days on Market

For those listings that did accept offers in September, the average days on market was the lowest in a long while. Many new listings, especially those considered most appealing and well-priced, are accepting offers within 7 to 10 days of coming on market.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

2600 Faretto Lane, Reno, NV
Offered at $3,995,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.