Archive for June 2010 | Monthly archive page

Another Homebuyer Tax Credit?

Not quite. On Tuesday, The House of Representatives voted to extend the tax credit for three more months for those who had a contract in place prior to April 30th, 2010. The extension is to allow them enough time to close on their purchases in order to receive the $8,000 federal income tax credit.

According to CNN.com:

“But the Senate had better act fast – the deadline [for closing under the current extension] is currently Wednesday.

The bill doesn’t help anyone currently shopping for a home. Buyers must have signed a contract by April 30 to qualify for the tax break. At issue is when the deal must be finalized.

The House voted 409 to 5 to delay the closing deadline to Sept. 30 in a stand-alone measure.”

Total deficit increase over a decade? $9 million.

Read the full article here.

366485

63 Karen Court


Represented Buyer
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What is selling in the SF Housing Market

Houses Accepting Offers (week by week chart): this market is holding up pretty well, climbing back to the average level of a strong spring season. (The last week of April was a blip caused by the expiring Federal tax credit.)

Condos Accepting Offers (week by week chart): condo market has weakened more than the house market.

The great majority of homes selling, accept offers within a few weeks of going on market, and of course, these also achieve the best SP to original LP %.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price % by Price Reductions

Houses that sell without a price reduction (75% of sales in May) averaged 101% of LP over the past 12 months and about 35 Days on Market since spring began. Houses that sell after 1 or more price reductions (25% of sales in May) averaged 88% of original LP over the past 12 months and about 110 Days on Market since spring began.


Condos that sell without a price reduction (71% of sales in May) averaged 98% of LP over the past 12 months and about 46 Days on Market since spring began. Condos that sell after 1 or more price reductions (29% of sales in May) averaged 88% of original LP over the past 12 months and about 125 Days on Market since spring began.


Percentage of Listings with Accepted Contracts (month by month charts): house vs. condos vs. TICs: house percentage, averaging 25% of listings, is higher than condo percentage, averaging 19% of listings, which is higher than TIC percentage, averaging 9-12% of listings.

SFD % of Listings Under Contract

Condo % of Listings Under Contract:


TICs: % of Listings Under Contract: fell to less than 10% in May.


House (SFD) Sales by Days on Market.

In May, approximately 75% of house listings that sold accepted offers within 3-4 weeks of going on market.

Approximately 15% of house listings that sold accepted offers between 30 – 90 days of going on market.

Only 10% of sold house listings accepted offers with days on market over 90, even though they made up 32% of the listings for sale.

Condominiums: Sale Price vs. List Price by Price Reductions

Single Family Homes: Sale Price vs. List Price by Price Reductions

The SF Market: Looking Back 6 Months

Here are market activity charts that cover the last 6 months by WEEK, through June 13, 2010.

Homes Listings Accepting Offers: market has slowed down quite a bit from April (the double tax credit rush), and by a smaller degree from May. The first week of June was significantly impacted by the Memorial Day weekend.

Listings For Sale: increasing bit by bit going into summer. Higher than at any other point in the past 6 months. A bit more choice for buyers.

Percent of Listings Under Contract: about the lowest it’s been since February. Increasing inventory + decreasing demand = more choice for buyers; a more competitive environment for sellers.

New Listings Coming on Market: a fair amount of new listings still coming on market. We’ll have to see if this begins to tail off going into summer.

Sold Listings vs. Expired/Withdrawn Listings: over the past 4 weeks, for every 3 solds, there have been 2 listings expired or withdrawn. So, plenty of listings are still not selling, typically due to being perceived as not a good enough deal by buyers. Buyers are cherry-picking the better deals and leaving the rest.

Luxury Homes $1,500,000+ Accepting Offers: the market has cooled in the past 4 weeks compared to the spurt in mid-May, but is generally at the levels we’ve seen since February.

368225

1232 Springwood Way, Pacifica


Represented Seller
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Paragon Market Dynamics Analysis: June 2010 Update

San Francisco Real Estate: June 2010 Update

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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SF Homes Accepting Offers
The market cooled in May after the frantic rush to get offers accepted before April 30th so as to qualify for both the expiring Federal tax credit & the new California tax credit. That rush inflated April’s results and deflated May’s, but May 2010 was still 9% above May 2009. Last year, the market did not slow appreciably — as is typical — during the summer months. We’ll see what happens in the summer of 2010.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Inventory Absorption
This chart reflects a market that is cooling a little from the frenzy of April: both accepted offers and new listings are down a little; and residual inventory is up a little (but still lower than most of the past year). Residual inventory reflects listings that were active (available) on the last day of the month, but listed prior to the first day of the same month, i.e. listings from prior months that have not yet accepted offers.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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SF Homes for Sale
The listing inventory dipped 4% from April to May, and is 10% below that of May 2009.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Median House Price
For 13 months, the monthly median price for SF houses sold has oscillated within a range 7% above or below $750,000, reflecting no established trend either up or down – which might be a definition for relative stability. Monthly changes in median price are generally not meaningful; longer term trends are meaningful. The median SF house price for May 2010 was virtually the same as in May, June, October and December of 2009.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Median Condo Price
The monthly median price for SF condos sold in the city over the past 13 months shows the same basic stability as the median price for houses, generally jogging up and down within a relatively narrow band.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
With the reduced number of homes accepting offers in May, the MSI in San Francisco went up a little. This is not terribly meaningful since it mostly reflects accepted offers that would have occurred in May being rushed into April to qualify for the Federal tax credit. In any case, the MSI is still quite low, reflecting a relatively tight inventory of homes for sale as compared to buyer demand.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Average Days on Market (DOM)
The average number of days between a house or condo in San Francisco going on market and it accepting an offer continues to decline. Obviously, the lower the days-on-market figure, the hotter the market. This average does NOT include those homes which have not accepted offers.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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SF Luxury Houses Accepting Offers
More luxury houses accepted offers in May than in any month over the past 2 years. We’ll have to wait to see if this is the beginning of a sustained surge in sales. Since luxury homes didn’t qualify for the Federal tax credit, the credit’s expiration had no impact on luxury home sales. In SF, a luxury house is one which sells for $2,000,000 and above.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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SF Luxury Condos Accepting Offers
Luxury condo sales have not bounced back significantly and remain well below sales levels at the height of the market 2 to 3 years ago. Because of this, pricing correctly is especially critical in this market segment. In SF, a luxury condo is one which sells for $1,500,000 and above.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Distress Sales as a % of Total SF Home Sales
The striped area of each column delineates the unit sales of bank-owned homes and short sales against total home sales. The percentage of distress sales in SF has remained relatively stable over the past year at 12% – 16% (which is much lower than most Bay Area counties). Though such sales now occur everywhere in the city, they are mostly concentrated in a few areas. A short sale is when the existing mortgage and other monetary liens exceed the home’s market value; thus the lender must agree to reduce the loan pay-off amount for the sale to close.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Distress Sales in Realtor District 10
District 10, which covers a large swath of neighborhoods running along the southern border of San Francisco from Oceanside to Bayview, is the district most impacted by foreclosures, the subsequent bank-owned sales, and short sales. This chart shows the percentage of distress sales of houses in District 10.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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District 10 Median Prices: Distress vs. Non-Distress
Bank-owned (REO) and short sale properties sell at a significant discount (generally 15% – 25%) to non-distress listings. Sometimes there are major property-condition or circumstances issues with REO homes, and REO homes are typically priced to sell quickly (often selling for over asking price). Of course, competing with so many REO & short sale listings also drags down the values of regular listings in this district.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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SF Home Sales by Price Range
This chart shows both the quantity of sales in each price segment and which segments have seen significant increases in unit sales comparing the past 12 months with the 12 months preceding. As one can see, in both categories, sales under $1,000,000 predominate, with by far the largest segment in San Francisco being those homes selling between $500,000 and $750,000. Which also qualified for the Federal tax credit.

 
Paragon Real Estate Group
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Mortgage Rates
Contrary to the predictions of most pundits, and substantially due to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, interest rates continue to remain at their lowest levels in the past 40 years. The effect such rates have on the cost of home ownership (and on the market) is enormous.

What You Get for How Much Where in San Francisco

Spring 2010 Home Sales at Selected Price Points

For $13,500,000

Pacific Heights on Broadway: 4 BR, 6 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge and bay views, elevator, 4 fireplaces, spa, garden, terraces, loggia, “unparalleled technology,” LEED energy certification, 2 car pkg.

For $3,000,000 to $6,550,000

$6,550,000: Pacific Hghts on Broadway: 7 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views from every level; south garden, elevator, 2 decks, 4 car pkg.
$5,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Steiner: 4 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-story, 5300 sq.ft. 1930 SFD (house); GG & bay views, au pair, 2 car pkg. $1057/sq.ft.
$4,440,000: Presidio Hghts on Clay: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 12-room, 5150 sq.ft. 1910 Edwardian; media rm, gym, 1 pkg. $862/sq.ft.
$4,100,000: Russian Hill on Lombard: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Spanish-Med SFD; GG & city views, 1 pkg.
$3,940,000: Sea Cliff on Lake: 4 BR, 4.5 BA, 5370 sq.ft. 1925 brick-front Colonial; GG & North Bay views, elevator, guest suite, library, 2 pkg. $734/sq.ft.
$3,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Pacific: 2 BR, 3 BA, 2714 sq.ft. 1924 penthouse; bridge to bridge views, terrace, solarium, 1 pkg. $1326/sq.ft.
$3,350,000: Noe Valley on 23rd: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1900 Shingle Victorian; bay and hills view, 2 pkg.
$3,100,000: Russian Hill on North Point: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2554 sq.ft. 1907 condo; stunning views, 3 decks, 2 pkg. $1214/sq.ft.

For about $2,000,000

Hayes Valley on Waller: 5 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-flr Victorian; deck, garden, full attic, 2 pkg.
Corona Heights: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2810 sq.ft. contemp. Edwardian; energy efficient, 2 pkg. $721/sq.ft.
Presidio Heights: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2289 sq.ft. 1911 top-flr condo; GG views, deck, pkg. $852/sq.ft.
Ashbury Hghts on Belvedere: 4 BR, 1.5 BA, 2680 sq.ft. 1906 Edwardian; elevator, pkg. $772/sq.ft.
Eureka Vly on Eureka: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2480 sq.ft. 2002 SFD; deck, solar panels, 2 pkg. $766/sq.ft.
Marina on Bay: 3 BR, 3 BA, 2415 sq.ft. 1929, 2-story Spanish-Med SFD; garden, 2 pkg. $821/sq.ft.

For about $1,500,000

Forest Hill: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2584 sq.ft. 1922 French Colonial; bonus room, 1 pkg. $600/sq.ft.
Dogpatch at Esprit Park: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2994 sq.ft. 2008 condo; deck, 2 pkg. $508/sq.ft.
St. Francis Wood: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2039 sq.ft. 1922 SFD; ocean views, yard, 2 pkg. $736/sq.ft.
Noe Vly on Guerrero: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1846 sq.ft. 2010 townhouse; LEED certified, 1 pkg. $813/sq.ft.
Parnassus Hghts on Edgewood: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1951 SFD; bay & city vws, decks, pkg, next to forest.
South Beach on Brannan: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1949 sq.ft. 2004 condo loft; bay views, 1 pkg. $759/sq.ft.
Noe Vly on Noe: two 1922 3-BR flats, 3042 sq.ft., decks, yard, 2 pkg. $493/sq.ft.

For about $1,250,000

Pine Lake near Stern Grove: 5 BR, 3 BA, 3245 sq.ft. 1936 Spanish-Med SFD; 2 pkg. $378/sq.ft.
Golden Gate Hghts: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2159 sq.ft. 1940 Cape Cod SFD; water views, 1 pkg. $568/sq.ft.
Cow Hollow on Franklin: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1500 sq.ft. 1930′s SFD; yard, 3 pkg. $817/sq.ft.
Bernal Hghts on Winfield: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1800 sq.ft. rebuilt SFD; pano views, 1 pkg. $688/sq.ft.
Pacific Hghts on Lafayette Park: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1550 sq.ft. 1928 condo; views, 1 pkg. $790/sq.ft.
SOMA on 4th: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1792 sq.ft. 1911 penthouse loft; city views, patio, 2 pkg. $698/sq.ft.

For about $1,000,000

Central Richmond: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 2075 sq.ft. rebuilt 1923 SFD; garden, 1 pkg. $486/sq.ft.
Bernal Heights: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2300 sq.ft. new 5-lvl SFD; bay & city views, 2 pkg. $437/sq.ft.
Potrero Hill on Vermont: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1876 sq.ft. 1907 Victorian; deck, 1 pkg. $522/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2130 sq.ft. 1933 Rousseau SFD; ocean views, 2 pkg. $481/sq.ft.
Mt. Davidson Manor: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2069 sq.ft. 1959 SFD; ocean, bay & city vws; 2 pkg. $474/sq.ft.
Glen Park: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1687 sq.ft. 1925 SFD; needs TLC, bonus rms, trust sale, 1 pkg. $591/sq.ft.
Lower Pacific Hghts on Pine: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1600 sq.ft. top-flr condo; view, deck, 1 pkg. $616/sq.ft.
Marina on Broderick: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1479 sq.ft. 1920′s top-flr condo; sunroom, 1 pkg. $690/sq.ft.
Corona Hghts: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1425 sq.ft. 1962, 2-lvl, top-flr condo; bay views, 1 pkg. $709/sq.ft.
Inner Sunset on 9th: 2 vacant Edwardian flats, 2530 sq.ft., 2 pkg. $387/sq.ft.

For about $750,000

Outer Parkside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1643 sq.ft. 1948 SFD; ocean & headlands views, 2 pkg. $453/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 3 BR, 1.5 BA, 1500 sq.ft. 1950 SFD; bonus rms, lge garage, 2 pkg. $510/sq.ft.
Mission Terrace: 3 BR, 1 BA, 1493 sq.ft. 1923 SFD; corner lot, bonus rooms, 2 pkg. $509/sq.ft.
Inner Mission on Valencia: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1090 sq.ft. new-built TIC; deck, 2 pkg. $678/sq.ft.
South Beach at The Towers: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1140 sq.ft. 2000 condo; 1 pkg. $649/sq.ft.
Noe Vly: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1200 sq.ft. 2005, lwr-lvl contemp. condo; roof deck, 1 pkg. $617/sq.ft.
NOPA on McAllister: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1999 2-level, contemporary condo; patio. 1 pkg.
SOMA on Townsend: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1238 sq.ft. brick & timber 2007 condo; 1 pkg. $618/sq.ft.
Hayes Vly on Haight: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1515 sq.ft. 1878 Vict. top-flr condo; leased pkg. $495/sq.ft.
Mission Bay on King: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1455 sq.ft. 2003 2-level condo; patio, 1 pkg. $509/sq.ft.
Duboce Triangle: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1230 sq.ft. 1907 Edwardian condo; garden, 1 pkg. $618/sq.ft.
Miraloma Park: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1150 sq.ft. 1931 “jewel box” SFD: city vws, 1 pkg. $652/sq.ft.
Outer Richmond on 34th: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1345 sq.ft. 1922, 5-room SFD; 3 pkg. $565/sq.ft.
Van Ness on Alice Toklas: 1 BR, 2 BA, 1257 sq.ft. penthouse loft; 1 pkg. $597/sq.ft.

For about $650,000

Parkside on 31st: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1475 sq.ft. 1937 SFD plus studio unit; 2 pkg. $441/sq.ft.
Outer Sunset on Irving: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1356 sq.ft. 1958 SFD; probate, 2 pkg. $487/sq.ft.
Forest Knolls on Galewood: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1465 sq.ft. 1978 3-lvl SFD; 2 pkg. $440/sq.ft.
Central Sunset: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1635 sq.ft. 1941 SFD; trust sale, illegal unit, 2 pkg. $401/sq.ft.
Alamo Sq. on Hayes: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1078 sq.ft. contemp. full-flr condo; deck, 1 pkg. $603/sq.ft.
Potrero Hill on 18th: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1087 sq.ft. 1995 condo-loft; 1 pkg. $598/sq.ft.
South Beach on King: 2BR, 2 BA, 900 sq.ft. 2007 high-rise condo; 1 pkg. $728/sq.ft.
Glen Park: 2 BR, 1 BA, 957 sq.ft. 1938 SFD; trust sale, large basement, 2 pkg. $690/sq.ft.
Westwood Highlands: 2 BR, 1 BA, 967 sq.ft. ranch SFD; short sale, yard, 2 pkg. $683/sq.ft.
Pacific Hghts on Gough: 1 BR, 1 BA, 1000 sq.ft. 1926 condo; short sale, den. $650/sq.ft.
Nob Hill on Clay: 1 BR, 1 BA, 1100 sq.ft. 1950 condo; roof deck view, 1 pkg. $591/sq.ft.

For about $500,000

Silver Terrace: 3 BR, 1 BA, 1012 sq.ft. 1943 SFD; large bonus room, 2 pkg. $494/sq.ft.
SOMA on Bryant: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1136 sq.ft. 3-lvl condo; short sale, 1 pkg. $443/sq.ft.
Outer Richmond on beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1384 sq.ft. 1983 condo; ocean vw, 1 pkg. $361/sq.ft.
Oceanview: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1125 sq.ft. 1940 SFD; bonus rooms, 1 pkg. $448/sq.ft.
Crocker Amazon: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1375 sq.ft. 1914 Arts & Crafts SFD; attic, 1 pkg. $366/sq.ft.
Diamond Heights: 2 BR, 1 BA, 990 sq.ft. 1972 condo; patio, 1 pkg. $504/sq.ft.
Mission Dolores on Valencia: 1 BR, 1 BA, 657 sq.ft. 2005 condo; short sale, 1 pkg. $753/sq.ft.
Marina on Mallorca: 1 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian garden condo; no pkg.

Bank-Owned Home Sales
There were 59 bank-owned (REO) house sales and 28 REO condo sales since spring began, constituting about 8% of total unit sales in San Francisco. The average dollar per sq.ft. was $387 for REO houses and $463 for REO condos. The median REO house price was $475,000 and the average REO condo price was $440,000. The REO house market in particular is quite hot: 66% of recent sales sold virtually immediately at an average of 5% above list price. Despite the variety of neighborhoods listed below, 45 out of the 59 REO house sales occurred in the city’s less affluent south and southeast neighborhoods, stretching from Oceanview to Bay View. Half of the REO condo sales occurred in the eastern, condo-heavy neighborhoods stretching from South Beach/SOMA to Potrero Hill.

$7,800,000: Pacific Hghts: 6 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views, elevator, 2 pkg.
$1,825,000: St. Francis Wood: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3740 sq.ft. 1956 SFD; ocean vws, 2 pkg. $488/sq.ft.
$959,000: Central Richmond: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2340 sq.ft. 1923 Edwardian; 2 pkg. $410/sq.ft.
$650,000: Outer Sunset: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1100 sq.ft. 1952 SFD; bonus BR & BA, 1 pkg. $582/sq.ft.
$622,000: Bay View: 6 BR, 4 BA, 3916 sq.ft. 2006 SFD; bonus rooms, bay vws, decks. $159/sq.ft.
$617,000: Outer Parkside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1754 sq.ft. 1945 SFD; bonus rms, deck, 2 pkg. $352/sq.ft.
$555,443: Ingleside: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1443 sq.ft. 1908 Victorian; illegal unit, yard, no pkg. $385/sq.ft.
$550,000: Noe Vly on San Jose: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1366 sq.ft. 1900 Victorian; tenants, pkg. $403/sq.ft.
$350,000: Visitacion Vly: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1091 sq.ft. 1924 SFD, bonus room, 1 pkg. $321/sq.ft.
$288,000: Crocker Amazon: 1907 “Contractor’s Special” SFD & garage.

The above are specific sales which closed 3/21/10 – 6/1/10, but they are not necessarily representative of typical values for the property type and neighborhood delineated. In real estate, the devil’s in the details: exact location within a neighborhood, quality of condition and renovations, quality of views, curb appeal, “extra” rooms, lot size and many other factors all impact property values. SFD = single family dwelling (house). Square footage is based on “livable space”, which may be measured in different ways, but does not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms” and “in-law apts”). Square footage figures are often unreported or unreliable.

All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted.